Hillary Clinton's image softens, moves to center
Back to the HRC Page

11/14/2004
Judy Holland, Hearst Newspapers

WASHINGTON - Recent polls show the public's image of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., gradually morphing from sharply controversial First Lady to centrist constituent-minded senator. Although still a polarizing figure, the first-term lawmaker could use the makeover to position herself for a White House run in 2008.

Political strategists say Clinton has impressed Senate colleagues and constituents by working methodically on New York issues while taking moderate or conservative stances on controversies such as the war in Iraq.

"A majority feel positive toward her," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. "She's being seen as being more effective and sticking to her job. She's managed to shape her role in a way that's more acceptable. She's in a transition."

A national survey of registered voters by the Marist Institute conducted directly after Election Day showed 54 percent of respondents view Clinton favorably, with 43 percent viewing her unfavorably.

But Americans are mixed on whether she should run for president in 2008, with 42 percent saying she should and 54 percent saying she shouldn't, the poll showed.

Still that's significantly up from 2001, when a Marist poll showed only 30 percent of respondents saying Clinton should run for president someday compared to 61 percent saying she shouldn't.

Early in her Senate career, Clinton's popularity among New Yorkers was shaky at best. But she logged countless hours combing New York's 62 counties "and made a real effort to be around," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "She goes to things. She does what a senator ought to do."

According to a Quinnipiac poll of New Yorkers, Clinton's approval rating has steadily risen from 38 percent on Feb. 14, 2001 to 61 percent on Sept. 14, 2004.

"She's not the caricature that people thought," Carroll said. "She's not a '60s lefty. She's not a looney leftist and she works. She's a reasonably centrist liberal."

Carroll said Democrats who aspire to their party's nomination in 2008 would "either have to beat her or discourage her" from running.

John Zogby, an independent pollster in Utica, N.Y., and president of Zogby International, who predicted Clinton would fail in her bid for a New York Senate seat in 2000, said she has steadily won support because "she knows how to campaign and turn the somewhat disbeliever in a believer."

Still, the obstacles remain formidable. On the national level, Clinton starts with one-third of the electorate "absolutely just hating her guts," Zogby said.

Zogby often jokes: "She'll serve two terms as president, one term as chairman of the Federal Reserve and convert to Catholicism and ride out her years as Pope."

Harold Ickes, a close Clinton ally who was deputy chief of staff to President Clinton in his first term, said the senator "would certainly be very high on my list" if she decides to run.

"She has clearly established herself as a national leader," Ickes said. But before Clinton can run for president, she has a bigger hurdle to clear - re-election to the Senate in 2006.

Strategists predict Republican Gov. George E. Pataki may challenge her in 2006 or perhaps even former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who some experts believe may be eyeing a New York Senate seat as a stepping stone for his own presidential ambitions.

Whoever runs against Clinton in '06 likely would challenge her on whether she intends to serve out her Senate term or run for president in '08.

A Clinton-Giuliani Senate race in '06 "would be the most exciting heavyweight battle we've ever seen outside a presidential election," said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who managed Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996.

Reed said "slaying the dragon" by beating Clinton in a New York Senate race would help Giuliani in '08 by getting him past his liberal record on social issues - positions that irk many Republicans.

Beating Clinton would make Giuliani "a national figure who has derailed the Democrats' top prospect," he said. "That's the move to watch in New York."

On the other hand, Reed added, if Clinton wins by a healthy margin in New York in 2006, she'll be perfectly positioned for a presidential run in 2008.

"She was the star of the fundraising circuit during the last cycle and where ever she goes the cameras follow," Reed said, noting that Republicans have "tripped over themselves" to sponsor legislation with Clinton because she's got "star power."

"She's the one to watch," he said.

Joe Householder, Clinton's spokesman, said the senator now is focused "like a laser on continuing to serve the people of New York."

Of a possible 2008 presidential run, he said: "She is the only person not losing sleep over it. Right now her top priority is her next session of Congress."

A number of other Democrats are expected to audition for 2008, including several governors. Among them: New Mexico's Bill Richardson, Iowa's Tom Vilsack and Pennsylvania's Ed Rendell. Also in the wings are Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., Sen. John Kerry's running mate. Kerry himself is contemplating another run.

Marshall Wittmann, a senior fellow with the Democratic Leadership Council, said Clinton's reputation as a polarizing figure isn't necessarily a liability for 2008.

"President Bush is a polarizing figure as well and he was just successful in getting re-elected to a second term as president," Wittmann said. "It can actually be an asset."

"My sense is that Hillary is trying to place herself as a centrist Democrat with national security credentials within the mainstream of the party and that will do her well if she decides to run for president," Wittmann said.

Charlie Black, a Republican strategist, said Clinton is clearly the front runner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 and notes that her status as a "martyr figure" because of her husband's infidelity has made her more popular among women.

"She's better now and more popular by far then anybody else," Black said.

©MyWestTexas.com 2004